The hunt for October is really on; The All-Star game is behind us, almost every team has played at least 100 games and the trade deadline is upon us.
Teams will rise and fall between now and the end of the regular season but we now know the identity of the 30 MLB teams. The Nats are terrible, Arizona and San Diego (with the exceptions of Dan Haren and Adrian Gonzalez) are almost as bad but this is about the beasts in the east and the best in the west.
The Power Rankings aim to highlight the teams that should be in the postseason, not the teams that will be (no AL Central teams make the grade on this occasion) or that are necessarily playing the best baseball right now.
1. New York Yankees (62-39) - The most runs, most homers, most RBI, highest OBP, highest SLG, highest OPS…basically, the Bronx Bombers are back. And not just in their home yard park. Jeter and Cano seem close to their best, Teixeira (.941 OPS, 26 HR, 74 RBI) has rebounded from a slow start and is now a serious MVP candidate and A-Rod will likely only improve as he continues to comeback from his hip surgery.
The Yanks do seem a starter light with the loss of the Taiwanese loss accumulator Chien-Ming Wang and the latest news that Joba - who has pitched superbly in his last 3 starts - will be returning to the pen but if A.J Burnett can stay healthy then, along with C.C Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, New York can eat innings and keep winning because few are going to get to their relievers. Mariano is killing it once again, Phil Hughes has been exceptional as a set-up man and Aceves and Coke are both contributing even if Brian Bruney isn’t.
This team could win 100 games and have to be favourites to represent the AL in the World Series.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (62-39) - Maybe the most balanced team in the Majors this season, the Dodgers rank 1st in opponent BA, 2nd in ERA, BA and OBP and 5th in fielding percentage. Manny is back and seems unphased by his 50-game suspension, Matt Kemp (13 HR, .313 BA), James Loney (63 RBI, .363 OBP) and Andre Ethier (20 HR) have lead this team with the bat from opening day but they rank equal 24th (along with the Astros and Royals) with only 84 Homers in total.
Clayton Kershaw has been a revelation as of late and may be their ace at this stage; behind him are 10-game winner Chad Billingsley and efficient but decision-starved Randy Wolf. Much like the Yankees, the Dodgers would benefit from finding another starter as the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation are wide open but, also like the Yankees, they have a superior bull pen; Troncoso, Belisario, Mota and the imposing closer Jonathon Broxton all have ERA’s under 3 but have all been asked to work often. Can they remain fresh down the stretch? Breaking news is that they’ve just traded for Baltimore reliever George Sherrill…
They’ve been the NL champs in waiting virtually since day 1 and should win the West. Dodger fans will hope not to have peaked prematurely.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (58-41) - To this point, the fighting Phils have been fairly unbalanced; fearsome hitting, strong defence but below-average pitching. We know they can score runs with the likes of Ryan Howard (26 HR, 77 RBI) and Chase Utley (22 HR, .423 OBP) in the lineup but Raul Ibanez (26 HR, 74 RBI, .307 BA) and Jayson Werth (21 HR, .379 OBP) have both pleasantly surprised. Shane Victorino and Pedro Feliz are strong performers and even Jimmy Rollins has started to heat up (.327, 19 RBI since July 2nd). This team are 2nd in Runs and RBI, 3rd in Baseball in HR and 4th in OPS.
For a team with the 2nd best fielding percentage and 5.42 runs in support every game, it shouldn’t take too much from the hurlers to produce a winning team. The Phillies have gone 21-7 over the last month and a few days and now pace the NL East by 6 games but were clearly not convinced (and correctly so) that they had the pitching to close out the division and compete in the postseason. Enter Cliff Lee. Last years AL CY Young winner will head an inconsistent group featuring rising star J.A Happ (7-2, 2.97 ERA), last year's playoff hero but currently underachieving Cole Hamels, the ageless albeit very hittable Jamie Moyer (5.32 ERA) and the rollercoaster Joe Blanton (last 4 games - 29.2 Innings, 4 ER, 3-0. 4 previous games - 24.1 Innings, 11 ER, 0-1). Oh and Brad Lidge, perfect last year, has 20 saves….at an ERA of 7.11. Ugly. And they got Pedro. Nobody is quite sure why.
If Cliff Lee can impact the team the way that previous mid-season Cy Young’s have done (C.C Sabathia, Randy Johnson) then the Phils will be a match for anyone but the rest of the pitching staff will need to recapture last year’s heroics to keep the title in Pennsylvania.
4. Boston Red Sox (58-42) - The sinking Sox (3-7 in their last 10) looked the part of AL Champs right up until the All-Star break. Since then question marks have been raised about their hitting, fielding and pitching. Not a good combination for a successful ball club. The bare numbers don’t look all that terrible; 2nd in Doubles and Strikeouts, 3rd in Complete Games, 5th in OPS, 6th in Runs, 8th in ERA, 9th in Homers…but things have not been quite right. Kevin Youkilis had a fast start but is now hitting below .300, Jason Bay has knocked in 74 Runs but just 5 in his last 29 games, David Ortiz has returned to some prominence but is still only hitting .224 with a Slugging Percentage lower than Chone Figgins and Christian Guzman plus a lack of production from Right Field and Shortstop.
But at least they’ve pitched well. Or have they? Josh Beckett (12-4, 3.44 ERA) has been excellent after a couple of difficult early outings, Tim Wakefield was 11-3 before heading to the DL and Jon Lester has been better than his 9-7 record suggests but…Dice-K (8.23 ERA)…disaster...Brad Penny (5.07 ERA)…purely passable…John Smoltz (7.04 ERA)…shocking. The back end of the rotation needs work, although Clay Bucholz could help stabilise that situation, and so might the much praised bullpen. Again the numbers don’t look too bad for the Red Sox relievers and this group is still amongst the leagues best however closer Jonathon Papelbon has a 1.37 WHIP and can’t seem to buy a 1-2-3 inning while the likes of Ramon Ramirez and Justin Masterson have struggled as of late.
Boston should make the playoffs, at the very least through the Wild Card, but don’t seem quite the unit many had predicted and appear a team without a spark as we head into August. At least they know how to beat the Yankees.
5. Los Angeles Angels (60-40) - This time last year the Halos had the best record in baseball and, despite all the injuries, the tragic death of Nick Adenhart and the loss of the single-season saves leader Francisco Rodriguez, they aren’t far off that pace this year. This years version of the Angels are powered by their offense; 1st in Hits and BA, 2nd in Runs, RBI and OPS and Steals. Erick Aybar (.318 BA), Bobby Abreu (.414 OBP, 68 RBI, 22 SB), Juan Rivera (.310 BA, 17 HR), Chone Figgins (.392 OBP, 79 Runs, 31 SB), Torii Hunter (.938 OPS, 65 RBI, 17 HR) and Kendry Morales (.909 OPS, 20 HR, 60 RBI) are all hitting well and Vlad Guerrero could still catch fire later in the year.
Problematically for this team, particularly if they are to avoid another early exit from the playoffs, their pitching is far less consistent. Jered Weaver (10-3, 3.71 ERA) and Darren Oliver (12 Holds, 2.62 ERA) are the only key contributors that have ERA’s under 4 and although John Lackey (7-4, 4.00 ERA) has improved as of late, Joe Saunders’ form has dipped (8-6, 5.02 ERA) and Ervin Santana (3-6, 7.29 ERA) has been a disaster. But help is on the way; Matt Palmer and Sean O’Sullivan, new to the majors, have a combined 14-1 record, albeit largely behind strong run support. Brian Fuentes does lead the Majors in Saves (30) but has a 1.32 WHIP and 4.29 ERA. Other notable relievers Jose Arredondo (5.55 ERA) and Scott Shields (6.62 ERA) have not been the players they were last year.
The Angels could easily end up with the second best record in the AL and should win the West ahead of Texas. The real test for them will be beating a team from the AL East having been beaten by the Yankees and Red Sox in the first round of the playoffs 3 of their last 4 appearances.
6. St. Louis Cardinals (56-48) - The best player in the game is having a fantastic year and the Cards may have just found the pieces to add to the Championship puzzle. Offensively Albert Pujols leads the team in Games, At Bats, Runs, Hits, Home Runs, Total Bases, RBI’s, Walks, Stolen Bases and of course every average (34 HR, 92 RBI, 78 Walks, .443 OBP, 1.123 OPS - and leads the league in all those categories). Prince Albert aside, the introductions of Matt Holliday, Mark de Rosa and Julio Lugo have added more firepower in the lineup but currently the Cardinals sit right in the middle of most sortable Team Batting Stats.
It’s hard to write a sentence without including Pujols but it will probably the performances of his teammates that will determine whether he gets to play on the biggest stage of all. Holliday (1.313 OPS with the Cards so far) will offer protection behind Albert, Ryan Ludwick (17 HR, 66 RBI) has been hitting close to .400 over the last month and rookie Colby Rasmus (11 HR, 35 RBI) has impressed but St. Louis may live and die by their pitching staff at the end of the season. Chris Carpenter (9-3, 0.96 WHIP, 2.19 ERA), Adam Wainwright (12-6, 2.80 ERA) and Joel Pinero (9-9, 2.84 ERA) are the only trio of starters with sub-3 ERA’s and have all been outstanding as of late. If Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.35 ERA) or Todd Wellemeyer (7-9, 5.79 ERA) could step up then this team might streak away with the tight Central. The bullpen is underrated and Ryan Franklin (23 Saves, 0.91 WHIP, 1.41 ERA) is having a fine year (yet Franklin has slipped a little since the break).
The Cards won the World Series in 2006 on the back of an 83-win season and, in a pennant race that is likely to go down to wire between up to 4 teams, may look for a similarly unlikely postseason run. If one man can propel them back to glory it’s Pujols.
7. Texas Rangers (56-43) - Currently a couple of games back from Boston in the Wild Card race and 3.5 back from the Angels in the West, the Rangers were not really contenders in many people’s minds in Spring Training due to perceived weaknesses in their pitching staff. We all knew they could hit and their ranks in Home Runs (2nd), Slugging (2nd) and Total Bases (6th) suggest that but, with the exception of their ability to pound the long ball, the Rangers have not been the offensive force many guaranteed. 24th in BA, 25th in Hits and 26th in OBP behind below-par seasons for Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis, Jarrod Saltalamacchia (all below .240 BA and .680 OPS) but Nelson Cruz (24 HR, .543 SLG), Ian Kinsler (23 HR, 63 RBI and 22 SB from the leadoff spot), the ever reliable Michael Young (.321 BA, .514 SLG) and likely rookie of the year Elvis Andrus (.266 BA, 20 SB) have kept the wheels turning for Texas.
Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.39 ERA) and Scott Feldman (9-4, 3.99 ERA) lead the pitching staff but there’s not a name in their pen that would scare a postseason opponent. This itself may be their biggest strength; Dustin Nippert (3-0, 3.54 ERA) and Tommy Hunter (3-1, 2.00 ERA) have impressed over recent outings and mid-season trades Jason Grilli (1.10 ERA) and Darren O’Day (1.80 ERA) have been excellent acquisitions. At the back end, Frank Francisco (15 Saves, 2.28 ERA) and C.J Wilson (11 Saves, 2.80 ERA) have stabilised the entire pen this year.
Texas will hope to not be the odd one out in the American League. It would be a shock to see them win the World Series but nobody will want to face them over 5 games in the ALDS.
8. Chicago Cubs (53-46) - The Cubbies were 97-game winners last year making even the most pessimistic fans believe that their Championship drought would end at the 100 year mark. It wasn’t to be and they began this year in full hangover mode. However, they’ve gone 18-8 this month and are now tied atop the division. How have they done it? Well, not really with the bat as they rank in the bottom half of most offensive measurements and are home to Milton Bradley (8 HR, .250 ERA, $10million per year - although he has improved as of late). Aramis Ramirez (9 HR, 30 RBI, .343 BA, 1.006 OPS in just 36 games) has reignited the offense as of late and Alfonso Soriano seems to have benefited from moving down the order (3 HR, 9 RBI in the last 5 games).
If they can continue to hit then they can win the division because their pitching has been pretty good all season (yet fielding average at best). 1st in Quality Starts, 3rd in Batting Average Against, 4th in Strikeouts and 5th in ERA. They’ve got 5 good starters; Randy Wells, the least heralded of the 5, is having a great year (7-4, 2.84 ERA) and, along with Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Harden, could claim to be in the best rotation around (the Giants might argue that point). Carlos Marmol (23 Holds, 3.10 ERA) and Kevin Gregg (21 Saves, 3.35 ERA) are the 8th and 9th Inning mainstays and have been positively filthy as of late.
This could be their year (Version 101)….
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