Wednesday, 13 May 2009

Celtics v Magic, Game 5 Play by Play

I'll be honest. I've felt better, I didn't get any sleep last night and I've got that 'I-can-feel-every-part-of-my-face-and-it's-quite-disconcerting-me' thing going on. But none of that matters as the epic that is the Celtics postseason continues with Game 5 of the Conference Semis, Back in Boston.

Let's see if I can blog this game as it happens.

5.28 1st Quarter - Doc takes the Boston's first timeout as the Magic go on a 6-0 run to lead 10-8. Dwight already has four boards, Turkoglu 6 points and Ray Allen looks like he warmed up in a fridge. Boston will need Paul Pierce to step up if they are to win this series and he has started 1/3 with 4 points.

I swear May and June are my unhealthiest months of the year. The nights out are par for the course but it's the nervous eating that kills me. Every time Rashard Lewis drives into the lane I take another bite of pitta and houmous.

Allen just missed again, he is on a 0/11 run from downtown.

1.29 1st Quarter - Rafer Alston sinks a three as the Celtic offense looks anaemic. 8, yes 8, rebounds for Dwight Howard.

Was it ever a good idea to have a sporting mascot that needs a walking stick?

End 1st Quarter - 22-16 to the Magic. Of the four games played previous to this in this series, only one has been won by a team trailing after one.

11.40 2nd Quarter - That's not good. Second foul on Kendrick Perkins; really need him in there as much as possible to limit Howard as he has done effectively all year.

10.32 2nd Quarter - Great move from Big Baby, finding space and making the lay up over Dwight Howard. And now House wide open...Yes! 26-23 Orlando. Go Celtics!

Dwight Howard just voided the warranty on the ring with a slam.

8.46 2nd Quarter - Everything good is going through Glen Davis right now. We are seeing this guy mature in front of our eyes. He looks calm, controlled and is creating space for teammates.

Orlando pull away to 33-23 as Celtics continue to miss good looks at the basket. The Magic have a ruthless streak to their execution and a suffocating presence on both ends of the floor right now.

5.35 2nd Quarter - Magic take a timeout as Scalabrine hits a 3 and then Eddie House steals the ball and forces his way to the basket. 33-28 Orlando. Boston really dont look all that comfortable and appear to be relying more on the fastbreak and outside shots to score, as opposed to the Magic who can't help but get inside with Paul Pierce off the floor and Perkins already with 2 fouls. Celtics are going to need to get hot from the field and play on the emotion of the fans because the Magic have really come to play.

Rashard Lewis moves to 6/7 as he works on Ray Allen.

I could pretend to be confident now but the fact is I've just opened another pack of biscuits.

Allen nails a three. Thats big. Now a steal...but Orlando get the ball back and go the FT line. 40-33 Magic as Van Gundy takes a timeout with 2.30 to go in the quarter.

Rajon Rondo has 6 rebounds. Has there ever been a 6'1 Point Guard who has averaged almost almost 10 rebounds a game in the playoffs?

1.01 2nd Quarter - Beautiful fake and shot by Pierce bring Celtics within 5...until Alston scores from Threeland. They have responded to everything the Celtics have offered so far. Orlando do a real good job of camouflaging and covering for the weaknesses of J.J Reddick.

End 2nd Quarter - 45-37 Orlando at the break as Glen Davis sends up a brick to end the half; endemic of their struggles as they are only scoring on 35% of their shots at this stage. Not a whole lot to love if you are a Celtics fan right now; Orlando look sharper and more organised. Ray Allen has a line of 3-1-2 with three turnovers, has yet to get to the line and is being outplayed by the afforementioned Reddick.

What do the teams need to do? For Orlando, essentially to maintain the intensity on D and the aggressive offence that has typified the first half. For the Celtics (considering game 6 is in Orlando), they have to alter the tide of this game; make their shots, defend the lane better, lift the intensity and put pressure on the Magic.

We are underway in the 3rd.

Ray Allen misses a jumper and Rafer Alston goes up the other end and scores...with the foul.

10.37 3rd Quarter - Turkoglu just showed some quality, giving Davis the shake and hitting to give the Magic a 50-39 lead. The Celtics really need some defensive plays if they are to go on a run and get back in this game.

9.03 3rd Quater - That could be costly. Howard grabs yet another board only to push Rondo to the ground. Third foul on Dwight. Rondo's loving that driving teardrop shot right now. I'm not.

Boston within six as Pierce has started the second half very well.

Stan Van Gundy looks anything but panicky at this stage, virtually turning a bench chair into a recliner. He looks like a Stan, or a Bruce or Jeff. Either way, its not pretty. He looks like a man you would meet at a convention centre by the buffet. And not make eye contact with.

Orlando push their lead to 11 as Gortat scores with just under five minutes to go in the quarter. Marbury looks particularly innefective out there at the moment. Maybe he is warming up.

2.49 3rd Quarter - With the shot clock winding down, Ray Allen produces a moment of genius as he goes behind the back on the dribble before laying the ball in. Neither team is finding scoring easy at this stage but perhaps that can kick start Allen and Boston.

1.23 3rd Quarter - Every time the Celtics get within touching distance, Orlando has an answer. First its Rashard Lewis (who Boston have no answer for) then Mickael Pietrus from the left wing. 62-54 Orlando.

Alston with a deep three. Pierce responds with a drive to the post. Two and the foul, which he converts. Back within five...for a matter of seconds before Turkoglu gets his own chance for a three point play. Boston cannot take advantage of Howard being off the floor or produce the defence to put a run together.

End 3rd Quarter - 67-59 Orlando as Eddie House releases the 3 too late. There is no evidence that Boston will recover and win this game but I've got a feeling that Coach Rivers and Coach KG might just have something to say to motivate the Champs.

The first action of the fourth sees Allen miss a three point attempt and Dwight Howard returns with a bucket and the foul.

9.29 4th Quarter - Turkoglu now scores and goes to the line. Orlando have everything going there way now as Perkins will have to sit with 4 fouls.

Orlando have stretched away and this one might be beyond the Celtics now. 77-63 Magic as Pietrus gets the alleyoop. It's quiet in the garden.

Out of a timeout, Marbury hits a pretty looking three and now has seven in a matter of minutes. Marbury pulls up again...yes! He has all 9 of their points in the quarter.

7.16 4th Quarter - Big Baby connects over Howard and the lead is cut to 9. But Orlando respond again. Boston have to score points but the lack of D continues to hurt them.

5.55 4th Quarter - Whatever happens here, Stephon Marbury has showcased his ability and proved that he can contribute. Two more points and 11 in less than 6 minutes. Marbury now sinks a free throw and its 83-75 Orlando.

3.56 4th Quarter - Don't count them out just yet. Consecutives jump shots from Big Baby and they're back within six. If they can score the next basket it is really on... Timeout Orlando.

Orlando have blown big leads before and there has to be a sense of concern on their bench. If Boston were to knick another game in this series then it's hard to see Orlando recovering. First the Celts need that defensive stand. And get it. Rondo feeds Pierce...two more. The lead is down to 4.

The crowd are really into it now and Orlando have gone cold.

2.35 4th Quarter - I'm not sure I believe this. Allen pulls up and finds Kendrick Perkins under the basket who finishes. Orlando 85, Boston 83. Celtics on a 20-8 and an 8-0 run.

BOSTON TAKE THE LEAD!!! Allen spinning on the arc and hits the three! 86-85 Boston as Allen redeems his whole evening of futility in one stroke. The roof is coming off the garden!

Orlando take a timeout as they try to recover their composure and get back to the gameplan after a couple of poor offensive series. Kanye, this is amazing.

1.20 remaining in the ball game. I am literally shaking with nerves and excitement.

Boston defend Orlando's advances and there is less than 50 seconds remaining. Where has the fluency and command gone for the Magic?

36.2 4th Quarter - Boston catch a huge break as Rondo shoots the three with the shot clock at 0 and seemingly missing the target as it falls into the arms of Kendrick Perkins but, upon review, they rule it hit (and it literally must have grazed) and it is Celtic ball. Boston will use the clock and try to hit the shot that guarentees them at least overtime.

Rondo gets the inbound, to Pierce, Davis, Allen has to hurry the shot and it bounces clear but straight to Paul Pierce! Orlando are forced to foul and with 8.5 seconds remaining, Eddie House will go to the line with a chance to make this comeback virtually complete.

Free throw 1 - In, Boston up 87-85

Free throw 2 - In! Three point lead and Orlando have it all to do. The Celtics are on a 13-0 run and the Magic are 0 for their last 7 shots.

7.3 4th Quarter - Inbound to Rashard Lewis who is immediately fouled by Paul Pierce. Smart play by the Celtics. Lewis sinks both and its 88-87 Boston.

6.2 4th Quarter - Ray Allen gets the ball and is fouled. The 95% FT shooter steps to the line...and scores both. Back to a three point lead and Orlando have to tak their final timeout. Its all or nothing now for the Magic.

Turkoglu inbounds to Howard who is fouled! They give it to their worst FT shooter, 1/1 tonight but a 55% shooter this season. Of course, he strokes in the first.

5.9 4th Quarter - Howard tries to miss the second for the rebound but Pierce tips it to Davis who hangs on and is fouled. The tactics of the endgame have slowed the finish but it is hardly less gripping. Davis can ice this if he gets both. And he does. The Celtics win. I can hardly believe I wrote that. It seemed that Orlando had this one won and that Boston had no answer to their relentless defence. Wow.

For all their ills, and their are numerous failings in this Boston team right now, you simply cannot question their heart, desire and composure when it matters. Off to Orlando for game 6. Worth staying up for? I'm not sure I'll be able to sleep tonight after that.

Boston Wins 92-88 (Leads Best of Seven Series 3-2)

Tuesday, 12 May 2009

Officially a Problem

Premiership football, indeed world football, has been rife with officiating mistakes ever since its inception. While it has to be accepted that there will always be an element of human error in sport and that, for all the technology that can assists referees, blunders will always exist.

Having said that, it seems as though too many elementary errors continue to occur and in today's climate, where all professional teams are businesses as much as they are sports teams, failures of judgement by an extraneous individual can cost a franchise millions, managers their jobs and fans and players the opportunity to watch or play in the biggest games. Early in the season, we had the phantom goal; a goal given for Reading against Watford that was in fact deflected wide. This was an unforgivable mistake that should have been avoidable.

Since then there have been numerous occasions in which blunders have been made; players sent off that should not have been, penalties awarded or not incorrectly, free-kicks that should have been penalties, goal kicks that should have been corners and countless other miss-calls. Watch any football magazine show and you are bound to encounter analysis of refereeing error, often errors that decide games. It's so readily accepted that no examples even need to be offered.

It appears fruitless to focus on the individual mistakes. Clearly, there are failings in the system and this is something the FA evidently appreciate as evidenced by the fact that Stuart Atwell, the Referee at the centre of the phantom goal debacle, was subsequently nominated to join the FIFA list for officials. However, in contrast, Mark Halsey (a long time Premiership and FIFA ref) who sent off John Terry for a foul on Man City forward Jo last year, was demoted to officiating in League 2 for this apparent mistake. Presumably the FA considered Halsey's mistake a refereeing error and Atwell's a technical error (in fairness to Atwell, his linesman made the original mistake and he simply failed to overrule it).

Now clearly Halsey did not become a bad referee overnight but the FA had to be seen to responding to the miscue (which is exactly what they deemed it as they rescinded Terry's red card and punished Halsey). Theoretically the error was so clear and obvious therefore that, upon review, Halsey himself would have overturned it had he seen it again. So why didn't he? Why can't a ref analyze a key decision in a game? The argument against has often been that it would slow down the game but surely any fan of the game would rather an official got the call right for the loss of what, maybe a minute? Veritably, nothing riles fans more so than a poor refereeing decision and, with so much at stake, surely there is a danger that post-match conflict between sets of supporters is greatly influenced by this?

The 2002 World Cup, the pinnacle of the game, was tarnished by what seemed to be an epidemic of poor refereeing to the extent that certain nations would almost be inclined to place an asterisk next to the final results. Things plainly havent altered completely as was noticable in the Chelsea v Barcelona Champions League Semi-Final and if mistakes can happen in the biggest games with what should be the best officials, it can clearly happen anywhere.

Here are five ways in which officiating could be improved:

1. Goal-line technology: How do we not have this already? It's quick, it's easy to introduce and it affects a vital part of the game.

2. More officials: Why not have linesmen on both sides of the field in each half? Or an official behind each goal? The referee can still be the man in charge but how often do we hear that the closest official may have had his eye-line blocked or wasn't up with play?

3. Challenge Flags: Each manager could have one or two challenges they could make during a game that would result in the referee reviewing their decision with the help of TV replays and extra discussion with their linesmen. A concept used to great effect in American Football and really doesn't take too long.

4. Referee Microphones: Give every referee a microphone so that they broadcast every conversation with a player. It would help explain any controversial decisions to players, managers and fans and keep refs accountable. Used in Rugby, Tennis and American Football with success.

5. Implement a No-tolerance policy: In theory this already exists but only to a superficial level. If referees were stricter, disciplining players for any dissent and forcing players and managers to accept decisions made on the field and move on with the game.

Certainly there are restrictions. Not all these measures could be embedded at every level of the game but that shouldn't be a limit upon changing, with the aim of improving, officiating at the highest grade of competition. Nor should we support the claim that calls, good and bad, equal out over the course of the season. The only way to presume that to be the case would be if their were no errors at all and while that will never be the case, the governing bodies should be doing everything in their power to reduce the mistakes.

No doubt we will hear Sepp Blatter announce that FIFA will be trialing a system that enables refs to update their twitter accounts during matches for the coming season in the Swedish third division...

The First 11...Wrestlers of the Decade

The 11 most important Superstars in the WWE, 2000-present.

A decade of dueling in the squared circle has produced some of the most enduring imagery ever in wrestling. Future Hall of Famers ended their careers and new icons were born in the post-attitude era and here are the best that the noughties had to offer.

Honorable Mention: Eddie Guerrero, Jeff Hardy, Chris Benoit, Trish Stratus.

11. Chris Jericho – Ever since his entrance into the WWE at the end of the last millennia, Jericho has captivated audiences with a combination of brash promos, savvy in-ring work and unadulterated personality. Despite a two-year hiatus from 2005-2007, there is little doubt that Jericho has shaped this decade in the WWE more than most. Notable feuds against Triple H, Kurt Angle and particularly The Rock (including a fabulous match for the WCW Championship at No Mercy 2002) established Y2J as a main event star in the first part of the decade but perhaps it was his two feuds with Shawn Michaels, culminating in matches at Wrestlemania XIX and Unforgiven 2008, that fully cemented his place in this list. Whether the ‘Ayatollah of Rock and Rolla’ or Self-Righteous Villain he currently portrays, it is hard to ignore the influence of Y2J.

10. Brock Lesnar – No other competitor made a such a forceful imprint on wrestling in the decade in such a short time as Lesnar. He debuted in dominant fashion the day after Wrestlemania and X8 and by the time he exited following perhaps the worst match of his career against Goldberg at Wrestlemania XX, he was known as one of the most intense, powerful and capable wrestlers in the world. The ‘Next Big Thing’ became the Champ in the space of just three months, pinning the Rock cleanly at Summerslam, and rode the wave through five star, often brutal, matches with The Undertaker and Kurt Angle (remember how you felt when he missed that shooting star press at Mania XIX?) and even made the Big Show look good (their match at Survivor Series in 2002 was probably Show’s best ever). Lesnar should be remembered for what he achieved rather than what he failed to but one cant help but think that, should he stayed for the rest of the decade, he would be right at the top of this list.

9. The Undertaker – 17-0 at Wrestlemania, a six-time World Champion and arguably the third most iconic wrestler in WWE history (behind Hulk Hogan and Steve Austin), Undertaker has ruled the yard for twenty years. He began the current decade as ‘The American Badass’, turned into the ‘Big Evil’ and finally returned to the ‘Deadman’ persona that he was renowned for. Whatever his moniker, The Undertaker has spent the last last nine odd years in main event after main event against the biggest stars in the industry. Indeed, it seems harsh to keep Taker this low on the list, especially in the wake of his match with Shawn Michaels at Wrestlemania 25 but he is hurt by routinely missing time, failing to have a long title run and being so dominant in the 90’s.

8. Randy Orton – The future of the industry. A phenomenal performer who has matured from trainee in ‘Evolution’ to leader in ‘Legacy’. Orton plays the role of a modern heel to perfection and has developed into a real master of pace and psychology over the last few years after an uneven beginning to his career. His victory over Chris Benoit for his first World Title was premature but Orton has always had fantastic talent and has showcased it in some of the best matches of the last few years, particularly in repeated feuds with RVD and Triple H. For all that he has achieved this decade, If he can stay focused, then the next ten years could really be ‘The Age of Orton’.

7 John Cena – The most polarising athlete on the WWE roster, Cena is the most marketable product currently in wrestling. He is the only guy on this list who has always been a face (and the only non-high flyer that comes to mind, they include Rey Mysterio Jr, Jeff Hardy and RVD) and has developed into the successor to the Rock’s ‘sports entertainment’ throne. His in-ring ability has improved, albeit he is still not at the level of his main event peers, but his charisma, his look and his determination have taken him to the top and, for all his haters, he has been involved in many of the most memorable moments of the decade; his debut against Kurt Angle, his many freestyle raps, his match with RVD at ‘One Night Stand’, his spinner belts, his loss to Edge when his opponent cashed in the first ever ‘Money in the Bank’ briefcase and his return at the 2008 Royal Rumble.

6. Kurt Angle – As proficient a technical wrestler as we may have ever seen, Angle blended superb in-ring performance with strong mic work and a resiliency that place him near the summit of any list of the all time greats. Angle was active in the WWE from 2000-06 and in this time featured in match of the year candidates on a regular basis. His Matches against Brock Lesnar at Wrestlemania XIX, Stonecold at Summerslam 2001, Shane McMahon at King of the Ring 2001 and Shawn Michaels at Wrestlemania 21 are amongst the very best of the decade and his week-in-week-out level of execution has been virtually unrivalled. Angle’s exit from the WWE was sour and robbed avid viewers of some potentially dynamite feuds and matches in the last few years but Kurt’s combination of Intensity, Innovation and Intelligence (and questionable integrity) was a reason to buy PPV’s throughout his tenure.

5. ‘Stonecold’ Steve Austin – Essentially retired since Wrestlemania XIX in 2003, Austin’s impact on the decade within the WWE was certainly less than what he contributed in the 90’s, an era he defined. However, every time he is on WWE programming, a sometime mediocre show becomes must-watch television. Even in the selectively part-time role he has been employed in since his final match with The Rock (and most of it has been repetitive and generically scripted) he has offered entertainment with the help of the odd stevie-weiser, a catchphrase and a patented stunner. While active, he feuded with Triple H, Chris Benoit, Booker T, Kurt Angle and of course The Rock and got the best out of his opponents both in and out of the ring. Particularly out of the ring. I would rate his storylines with Kurt Angle and the Rock (both of them) as decade highlights and his final match, an emotional matchup with his long time nemesis was a masterpiece of personality and story telling.

4. The Rock – Another who saw limited action in the past ten years, The Rock has hardly been seen since 2004, but his influence and his domination of the WWE at the turn of the millennia would have had him atop this list a few years ago. The ultimate sports entertainer, Rock’s high intensity in-ring work rarely produced five-star matches (notable exceptions being the aforementioned bouts with Austin, a man with whom he shared incredible chemistry with, and matches at the beginning of the decade with Triple H) but his all around magnetic character saw him as the leading face within the WWE until his retirement. The Rock worked harder than anybody to please the fans and his love for the business should not really be called into question, despite leaving for Hollywood.

3. Shawn Michaels – It is no coincidence that every man who faces Michaels seems to be that much more capable in those matches than most other occasions. Michaels was true to form right from the moment he returned in 2002 and subsequently beat Triple H in an unsanctioned match at Summerslam. Shawn has really never disappointed in the ring and has had show-stealing matches against the likes of Chris Jericho, Kurt Angle, Jeff Hardy, Ric Flair, The Undertaker and whoever else you care to mention. His jovial nature, comic timing and comfort in front of the camera have endeared him to another generation of fans after being one of the premier wrestlers of the mid-90’s and, with his retirement seemingly on the cards for next years Wrestlemania, his imprint on the WWE will soon be complete. But what an imprint. Shawn Michaels was the man to retire Ric Flair, chosen as the opponent to face the Undertaker at the 25th anniversary of Wrestlemania, fought Hogan in a ‘legend versus icon’ match, formed ‘DX’, won the first ever Elimination Chamber match….and we have yet to even mention Bret Hart.

2. Edge – The only man to have won the World, WWE, Intercontinental, U.S and both Tag Team Titles, Edge has risen through the ranks as the decade has progressed. At the height of the tag team division, Edge and Christian were winning gold and redefining the boundaries of the anything to do with tables, ladders and chairs. When the King of the Ring tournament still an annual tournament, Edge won it, when the Intercontinental championship was still being hotly contested by main event talent, Edge was at the centre and when the Money in the Bank ladder match debuted, guess who climbed the ladder, won the match and then won the World Title as a result. You got it. Although he may not perform at the speed he once used to, he is a consummate ring general, smart speaker and the WWE rightly see him as one of the safest pairs of hands for any title going. It is very difficult to maintain the position of a lead heel for any sustained period but that is exactly what Edge has done, forming the foil in classic matchups with the likes of Cena, Matt Hardy, Batista and The Undertaker. The Rated R Superstar continues to be at the top of his game and may well have some of the most important feuds of the 2010’s.

1. Triple H – Really only one man could be at the top of this list. The King of Kings was involved in the first mega-match of the decade, a brutal yet beautiful match against Mick Foley, and likely will be involved in the last. He married the boss’ daughter and formed the ‘McMahon-Helmsley Faction’, picked out two future World Champions and lead ‘Evolution’ and still found the time to revive ‘DX’. Trips has feuded with every major star of the decade (except Brock Lesnar, moved to Smackdown while HHH was awarded the World Title on Raw) and been in more main events than anybody during the period. His feuds with Foley, Michaels, Rock, Austin, Angle, Jericho, Orton, Benoit, Batista and Cena have all been electric and he has been the focus of many of the most crucial storylines of this decade. Epic battles against The Rock at Backlash and Judgement Day 2000, Jericho at Fully Loaded in 2000, Shawn Michaels at Summerslam 2002, Benoit and Michaels at Wrestlemania XX, Cena at Wrestlemania 22 defined the first part of the 2000’s and although his recent matches have not been quite at that level, he remains a strong performer in the ring and a master at the building blocks of a conflict.

The decade saw some of the best matches and most intense feuds ever in the WWE, albeit punctuated by a series of mismanaged storylines, and was ably represented by all the wrestlers above but it is Triple H’s longevity that has him No.1. The Game has been at the top of the Game for the entire decade and whether in a stable or alone, face or heel, winner or loser, he has been the most central, most important figure on WWE programming since 2000.

Something's Missing...

The NBA playoffs are in full swing, the current MLB season has been one of the most curious and engaging in recent history, the European Football season is heading to it’s climax and a myriad of other sporting events are in motion. Hell, i’ve even watched some hockey.

Despite the sporting cornucopia to choose from (and May is a good month for sport), I find myself yearning for some NFL action. With the 2009 Draft in the books and the majority of Major Free Agents having signed, the picture for the coming season is starting to become clear. A few trades, injuries, holdouts and a Brett Favre saga aside, it is possible to start predicting the future.

First things first: Fantasy. Which players are going to have us wildly cheering our hated rivals? Which players are likely to frustrate us to the point where we question whether we knew nearly as much about the game as we thought? And who, prey Fantasy Gods, will be the Ultimate Sleepers?

Here are the guys i flat out love this year:

Matt Forte – An obvious choice but you have to like the Cutler-Forte pairing. Forte had 1,715 total yards last season to go along with 12 TD’s and only one fumble as a rookie and with an extra years seasoning and, hopefully for him, less 8-man fronts as a result of a hopefully improved passing game (and i think Greg Olsen plays a big part in this and may well end the season as a No.1 fantasy Tight End) he should improve on these numbers. While the Bears do have Kevin Jones and the other Adrian Peterson, Forte is one of the few feature backs in the league and could finish with close to 2,000 all purpose yards with 12+ scores.

Pierre Thomas – New Orleans did not take a RB in the draft and seem content with a Thomas/Reggie Bush backfield. This is a pass first offense but with after averaging over 4.8 yards a carry last season, 12 TD’s and a trusted pair of hands to catch some Drew Brees passes, Thomas should see his touches and stats soar. Bush has been brittle and is not likely to be a major contributor in the running game (just 106 rushes last year at under 4 yards a carry) and Thomas should get all the goal-line carries. Thomas should have his first 1000 yard season with 10+ scores.

Derrick Ward – I wonder if this guy gets a $17million contract if he doesn’t torch the Panthers for 215 yards towards the end of the regular season? The Bucs had to like that performance against a very talented defence and if Ward can match the intensity and power he showed while spelling Brandon Jacobs last year then he can improve on his 1,025 yards he amassed last year. The Bucs will be a run-first team and Ward will be the centerpiece. Ward reminds me a little of a poor-man’s Michael Turner and with few miles on the clock, could have a breakout season like Turner did last year after previously serving as a backup. Expect 1,200+ yards and 8+ Touchdowns.

Knowshon Moreno – No way do the Broncos draft this guy so high with so many other pressing needs unless they figure him to be the focal point of the attack. Kyle Orton or Chris Simms, whoever wins that battle, is not throwing for 4,000 yards and while this team has some quality receivers and a host of other backs, Moreno can be expected to rush 250+ times and catch 40+ balls. Moreno should be a very solid No.3 back at the very least and is an early Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.

T.J Houshmandzadeh – The Hawks should be a much better team than the 4-12 injury riddled team with the anaemic offence we saw last year. Housh can be an effective receiver in the West Coast offense and as long as Matt Hasselbeck can stay healthy, then Seattle should have a high flying offense. Housh will also be helped by the fact that the Seahawks have a number of other dangerous targets that should alleviate the threat of heavy coverage including Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Tight End John Carlson. Houshmandzadeh could be in line for another 1000+ yard season with 8+ TD’s and should be a very steady no.2 fantasy Wide-out.

Steve Smith – Two Steve Smith’s in the league and they’re both WR’s? What are the odds….This Steve Smith, he of the Plex-less Giants, has been a third down receiver for the last couple of years but will have a heightened role this season as the Giants have released veteran Amani Toomer along with Vigilante Plaxico Burress. Smith has the hands and physicality to be a key End-zone target for this team and should lead the team in receptions and yards. I don’t believe that Eli Manning is likely to throw for more than 3,800 yards and 25 TD’s (not with all that wind in New York) as the Giants continue to be a run-first team but Smith should be the recipient of a lot of Manning’s throws. Domenik Hixon may well have more yards per catch this year and Hakeem Nicks should play some part in his rookie year but Smith should grab 70+ balls for 900+ yards and 7+ TD’s.

Rashard Mendenhall – Very much the forgotten man on the Champion Steeler’s Roster, Mendenhall had only 19 carries last year due to injury but will have a major role this season, both in the running an return games. He will get goal-line and short yardage carries (the Steelers released Gary Russell who filled that role last year) and might just end up being the starter by the end of the year ahead of Fast Willie Parker. Easy to forget that Mendenhall was the No.1 rated back on a lot of draft boards a couple of years ago. I think he reaches the end-zone 12+ times and approaches 1000 yards with added value as a returner.

Seems worth remembering at this stage that three of the top five scorers last year were QB’s (ESPN scoring). Also that Roy Williams is the No.1 receiver in Dallas and that makes either Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd or Miles Austin really valuable. Possibly.

And those that i hate:

Brian Westbrook – Sacrilege i know. Westbrook has been an elite fantasy performer for years and is a threat every time he touches the ball. Having said that, Philadelphia have bought in running backs the last two years (Lorenzo Booker and LeSean McCoy, both Westbrook clones) and Westbrook suffered a down-year statistically last term. He turns 30 in September (a death nail for many a back), will have less carries than before and was ineffective in the playoffs at the end of last year. He is still a savvy player and a good blocker which will keep him in on third down more often than not but I don’t see his likely draft position being rewarded.

Thomas Jones – ESPN’s scoring system had him as the no.4 back last year, equal with Matt Forte, but that should be disregarded when considering the 09-10 season. No 100-yard game in the last four outings, turns 31 in August, no more field stretching QB and the acquisition of Shonn Greene in the third round of the draft. Hate hate hate.

Randy Moss – Now i love Randy Moss. I really do. Always have. But he will fall away as a No.1 receiver this year. 69 receptions and 11 scores last year while handling balls from a backup who hadn’t started since….well, you know but I can see his production failing to match his draft position. Tom Brady is coming back from a serious knee injury, the likes of which we have seen many a Quarterback take almost two years to recover from, the loss of offensive guru Josh MacDaniels and the addition of the likes of Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis and Fred Taylor to take touches away from Moss. I actually hope im wrong here but it seemed to me that Moss started to slow last year and seemed slightly demotivated which does not bode well. Lance Moore could get more fantasy points this season than Moss. Wait, did i just type that?

Ronnie Brown – The addition of Pat White surely limits Brown’s potential in fantasyland this year. Miami will continue to purport the wildcat and use a combination of Brown and Ricky Williams in the run game. Brown only rushed for 100+ yards three times and had just one TD in his last eight games (including the playoffs). This could be a tough division to run in this year and Brown won’t be a consistent performer in the coming year.

Tarvaris Jackson – Because he just really isn’t very good.

Joseph Addai – Only had 180 touches last term and had only one 100+ yard game. Now the injury-prone back will be joined in the back field by another first round pick in Donald Brown and may struggle to return to the form of his rookie and sophomore campaigns.

Titans D/ST – Worth more points last year than Kevin Smith, Anquan Boldin and Ronnie Brown. They say defence wins championships and in fantasy, it can hold true also. The Titans D/ST was worth almost 100 more points than the Jags D/ST but this year will slip from their lofty position (I’ve seen them ranked as the leagues No.1 D/ST for the upcoming year) without the $100million Defensive Tackle that anchored them last year.

Early Sleepers:

Harry Douglas (Atlanta) – Maturing into a valuable target for Matty Ice.

Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) – A slot receiver with good hands. Nelson could be the recipient of a lot of balls in what was a pretty high-flying offense last year.

Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) – Last years Third Round pick could be a starter if Larry Johnson gets in trouble, gets traded or gets bored.

Dominic Rhodes (Buffalo) – Another guy who may benefit from the misfortune of others. Marshawn Lynch is already guarenteed to miss time and if Rhodes can beat out Fred Jackson then he could be a high scorer, particularly considering the field stretching receivers in Buffalo this year.

Johnny Lee Higgins (Oakland) – Higgins is a special teams maven who could see more reps at wide receiver this season. Only rookie Darrius Heyward-Bey and Javon Walker, both of whom have question marks surrounding them, sit above Higgins in the depth chart.

Trent Edwards (Buffalo) – Can he survive The Terrel Owens experience?

Brian Robiskie (Cleveland) – Has a chance to contribute straight away and, especially if big-armed Derek Anderson is under center, could get some big numbers.

That’s more than enough for today. Plenty of time to change my mind on just about all of these. Papelbon just closed out the Rays and the Celtics just levelled the series against the Magic. God bless Glen Davis.

King James and the Cavalier Army: Who can stop them?

Having watched the Cleveland Cavaliers blow out the Atlanta Hawks in games one and two of their Eastern Conference Semi-Final (and both games were essentially over early in the second quarter) it is clear that the Cavs are the team to beat in the east. As if we ever thought differently.

LeBron is playing out of his mind; opening game one with a fierce dunk, sinking THAT three pointer in game two to end the half and his all around offensive and defensive game that has contributed to his first MVP award. His supporting cast have not let him down either. The Cavaliers and GM Danny Ferry have done a great job at surrounding King James with the talent, experience and vigor he needs to play his game with full confidence in his aides, to rest when required and to believe that this Cavs team can overcome any other to win its first NBA Championship.

Can anyone block the Cavs going all the way to the hoop in the East?

The Cavaliers may drop a game to the Hawks in Atlanta. They probably wont if their dominance and determination from the opening salvo’s are replicated in games three and four. That leaves the winner of the Magic v Celtics series as the only possible obstruction to represent the East in the NBA Finals; which team is more capable of the upset and what would they have to overcome?

1. Home Court Advantage – The Cavaliers, courtesy of their number 1 seed in the east would have home court advantage against either the Magic or the Celtics. The Cavaliers are unbeaten so far in the playoffs and posted a 39-2 home record this season (with the second loss coming in a meaningless game on the final day of the regular season). The Magic and Celtics both went 27-14 on their travels; the Celtics squaring the series against the Cavaliers, including an emotional victory on opening night and a 31 point beating at the end but failed to win at the Quicken Loans Arena. The Magic actually had a winning record against the champions-elect, winning two of three games they played but lost their only game in Ohio.

The Cavaliers have been so devastating at home throughout this season and early in these playoffs that it seems difficult to envisage any team winning two games in Cleveland or, if not, winning a game 7 against a team with a rabid fan-base desperate for success and one of the best closers in the league (82games.com has him rated second, only to Kobe Bryant, in thier Clutch Performance stats).

2. Stamina – The Cavaliers could easily enter the Eastern Conference Finals having played only eight playoff games and having rested up in their final couple of games of the regular season. The Magic will play at least 11, the Celtics at least 12 (Their series tied 1-1 at the time of writing) and more likely, the winner of their matchup will have played four, five or even six more games than the Cavs (I have the Celtics winning the series in seven) after a gruelling regular season.

The Cavaliers are close to full strength (only Lorenzen Wright, their third choice center is out for the season) and can’t get on the court quick enough. The Magic are without Jameer Nelson, a loss of tempered by the signing of Rafer Alston. The Magic have long moved on from the injury to their All-Star Point Guard but are also monitoring the fitness of rookie Point Guard Courtney Lee, a strong contributor off the bench). The Celtics, however, are without last years Defensive MVP, Kevin Garnett and primary backup Leon Powe. Garnett, likely lost for the rest of the playoffs, is as much a leader, inspiration and motivator as anybody on that team and for all he can offer suited up on the bench, the Celtics miss him on both ends of the floor. Once the news of Garnett’s unavailability broke, Leon Powe became the successor, only to tear the ACL in his left knee in Game 2 of their opening round series against the Bulls. KG’s injury and the effects of are well documented but Leon Powe has been an x-factor for this team over the last couple of seasons with a particular highlight coming against the Cavs just a couple of months ago when he came off the bench to score 20 points and grab 11 rebounds in a 105-94 victory.

Again, the advantage is with the Cavaliers. The Magic appear to lack the ability to close out the series against the Celtics to be able to rest up ahead of a potential match up against the Cavs and the Celtics must already be drained physically and mentally by having played an epic First Round, having relied on their key personnel to play major minutes both at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs (and Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, the two of the the big three still available, are both in their thirties and around the 1,000 game mark in their careers) and all without the metronomic presence of Kevin Garnett.

3. Bench – It is seemingly impossible to talk about the Cavs without mentioning a Mr.Lebron James. Ever since entering the league he has been the face of the team and, until the last couple of seasons, virtually the sole threat. Stop Lebron, stop the Cavs. Unfortunately for their opponents, that mantra has changed. They probably have the deepest bench in the league and can take advantage of lesser units, particularly at the start of the second quarter. The likes of Wally Szczerbiak, Aleksander Pavlovic, Joe Smith and Ben Wallace have been starters for other teams and indeed could start for many NBA teams currently. Their experience and willingness to buy into the team ethic in Cleveland has propelled this team into the elite. Wallace is still a capable defender, Szczerbiak a natural scorer and Daniel Gibson an energetic young player with real threat from the perimeter. The Magic depend on Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee and to a lesser extent Anthony Johnson, Martin Gortat and Tony Battie to contribute but are not that deep, particularly if they suffer an injury to any starter. Beyond Pietrus, who averages 9.4 points and 3.3 rebounds in just under 25 minutes of action, it is hard to see where Orlando will look for a game changer if Lee is unavailable. For the Celtics, Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis are now full time starters and while Eddie House and Brian Scalabrine have offered key contributions in the last month, there is a lack of quality beyond them. Tony Allen and Miki Moore will only play minimal minutes and Stephon Marbury still scares just about any Celtics fan you care to ask. Both teams will expose their leading starters to sizable minutes in an attempt to beat each other and certainly the Cavalier starters should be the fresher group heading into the Conference Championships.

If the series were to come down to the bench mob, it is hard to look beyond the Cavaliers. They have more depth, experience, potential points and game changing personnel to call upon than either Orlando or Boston. The likes of Lebron, Mo Williams and Delonte West all look rested and should they need to play 40+ minutes during a series, should be able to do so at a high level; especially Lebron James. The same cannot be said of the starters of their potential opponents, principally a ragged Celtic Team.

4. Defence – Orlando, Boston and Cleveland had virtually identical Points Per Game stats for the season, but the Cavs limited their opponents to only 91.35 Points Per Game, two whole points less than their closest challengers, the Spurs and Celtics and almost three less than the Magic. Defensive intensity always picks up in the playoffs and to beat the Cavaliers, teams will have to frustrate Lebron and his co-stars in the manner that the Celtics managed to do at times in their Eastern Conference Semi-Final last season.

All three are premier Defensive teams that will limit the opportunities afforded their opponents but, as we have seen so far, the Cavaliers and Lebron in particular, are playing at a such a level that even to compete, the Magic and Celtics will have to up their game considerably. It all starts with guarding King James. For Orlando, Rafer Alston and Mickael Pietrus will be asked to step up his minutes to defend Lebron but the loss of Courtney Lee could hurt. Dwight Howard has had a fantastic year defending the basket and will need to limit Lebron in the lane and maybe have some highlight reel blocks to go along with it. The Celtics are without their own imposing big man (KG) and will rely on Paul Pierce to stop James. The Celtics also have quality defenders in Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo at Guard but there is little that either can do individually to defend the King, indeed for both teams, it will be key for the collective to get in Lebron’s face, pressure him, steal the ball when possible and make as few mistakes as possible. Maybe the best hope for both teams will be to play mistake-free offense to limit the Cavaliers fast-break opportunities and silent the Ohio crowd on their travels. The Three teams have only nine regular season losses to their name when they score 100+ points but Cleveland have the worst winning percentage of any when their opponents score 100+.

While Cleveland seemingly is still in the ascendancy (and we haven’t even mentioned the high-powered Anderson Varejao, Four-Time Defensive MVP Ben Wallace, Delonte West or Big Z, not to mention the fact that Lebron James just makes all the guys around him better), both the Celtics and Magic have found ways to stop the Cavs. The Magic may still be a year or two away from competing at the highest level and, in Dwight Howard, perhaps lack the leadership of Cleveland’s premier player. Playoff Series are so often won by the best player on the court and for all Howard’s ability and improved intensity, he trails Lebron at this point. The Celts are bounded by injury and fatigue but if Paul Pierce can slow James and still produce offensively (hard to imagine considering the inconsistency and languor he has shown in the playoffs; 3 points in game 2? three?) and play the kind of intelligent, controlled basketball they are capable of (and the key to this is Rajon Rondo, the developing soul of this team) then they have a chance at the upset.

5. Desire – When the Celtics won it all last year, none of the above were the overwhelming contributor to their success. They just wanted it more. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce were determined to grasp their opportunity to claim a ring and dragged their teammates to the promised land. The same passion and fervour, while most closely imitated in Massachusetts, resides in Ohio this year. Orlando can’t match it, the Celtics are playing like wounded champions and, should they face the Cavaliers, would certainly not roll over. But nobody can match the belief, the spirit and ultimately the desire of Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers this season.

If Lebron is to leave this team in 2010, he will do so as an MVP, as record holder of many a Cavalier record, as the NBA’s most marketable asset and, most importantly for him, a World Champion. Cavaliers to beat the Celtics in five games and win the NBA Championship in Six.