King James and the Cavalier Army: Who can stop them?

Having watched the Cleveland Cavaliers blow out the Atlanta Hawks in games one and two of their Eastern Conference Semi-Final (and both games were essentially over early in the second quarter) it is clear that the Cavs are the team to beat in the east. As if we ever thought differently.

LeBron is playing out of his mind; opening game one with a fierce dunk, sinking THAT three pointer in game two to end the half and his all around offensive and defensive game that has contributed to his first MVP award. His supporting cast have not let him down either. The Cavaliers and GM Danny Ferry have done a great job at surrounding King James with the talent, experience and vigor he needs to play his game with full confidence in his aides, to rest when required and to believe that this Cavs team can overcome any other to win its first NBA Championship.

Can anyone block the Cavs going all the way to the hoop in the East?

The Cavaliers may drop a game to the Hawks in Atlanta. They probably wont if their dominance and determination from the opening salvo’s are replicated in games three and four. That leaves the winner of the Magic v Celtics series as the only possible obstruction to represent the East in the NBA Finals; which team is more capable of the upset and what would they have to overcome?

1. Home Court Advantage – The Cavaliers, courtesy of their number 1 seed in the east would have home court advantage against either the Magic or the Celtics. The Cavaliers are unbeaten so far in the playoffs and posted a 39-2 home record this season (with the second loss coming in a meaningless game on the final day of the regular season). The Magic and Celtics both went 27-14 on their travels; the Celtics squaring the series against the Cavaliers, including an emotional victory on opening night and a 31 point beating at the end but failed to win at the Quicken Loans Arena. The Magic actually had a winning record against the champions-elect, winning two of three games they played but lost their only game in Ohio.

The Cavaliers have been so devastating at home throughout this season and early in these playoffs that it seems difficult to envisage any team winning two games in Cleveland or, if not, winning a game 7 against a team with a rabid fan-base desperate for success and one of the best closers in the league (82games.com has him rated second, only to Kobe Bryant, in thier Clutch Performance stats).

2. Stamina – The Cavaliers could easily enter the Eastern Conference Finals having played only eight playoff games and having rested up in their final couple of games of the regular season. The Magic will play at least 11, the Celtics at least 12 (Their series tied 1-1 at the time of writing) and more likely, the winner of their matchup will have played four, five or even six more games than the Cavs (I have the Celtics winning the series in seven) after a gruelling regular season.

The Cavaliers are close to full strength (only Lorenzen Wright, their third choice center is out for the season) and can’t get on the court quick enough. The Magic are without Jameer Nelson, a loss of tempered by the signing of Rafer Alston. The Magic have long moved on from the injury to their All-Star Point Guard but are also monitoring the fitness of rookie Point Guard Courtney Lee, a strong contributor off the bench). The Celtics, however, are without last years Defensive MVP, Kevin Garnett and primary backup Leon Powe. Garnett, likely lost for the rest of the playoffs, is as much a leader, inspiration and motivator as anybody on that team and for all he can offer suited up on the bench, the Celtics miss him on both ends of the floor. Once the news of Garnett’s unavailability broke, Leon Powe became the successor, only to tear the ACL in his left knee in Game 2 of their opening round series against the Bulls. KG’s injury and the effects of are well documented but Leon Powe has been an x-factor for this team over the last couple of seasons with a particular highlight coming against the Cavs just a couple of months ago when he came off the bench to score 20 points and grab 11 rebounds in a 105-94 victory.

Again, the advantage is with the Cavaliers. The Magic appear to lack the ability to close out the series against the Celtics to be able to rest up ahead of a potential match up against the Cavs and the Celtics must already be drained physically and mentally by having played an epic First Round, having relied on their key personnel to play major minutes both at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs (and Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, the two of the the big three still available, are both in their thirties and around the 1,000 game mark in their careers) and all without the metronomic presence of Kevin Garnett.

3. Bench – It is seemingly impossible to talk about the Cavs without mentioning a Mr.Lebron James. Ever since entering the league he has been the face of the team and, until the last couple of seasons, virtually the sole threat. Stop Lebron, stop the Cavs. Unfortunately for their opponents, that mantra has changed. They probably have the deepest bench in the league and can take advantage of lesser units, particularly at the start of the second quarter. The likes of Wally Szczerbiak, Aleksander Pavlovic, Joe Smith and Ben Wallace have been starters for other teams and indeed could start for many NBA teams currently. Their experience and willingness to buy into the team ethic in Cleveland has propelled this team into the elite. Wallace is still a capable defender, Szczerbiak a natural scorer and Daniel Gibson an energetic young player with real threat from the perimeter. The Magic depend on Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee and to a lesser extent Anthony Johnson, Martin Gortat and Tony Battie to contribute but are not that deep, particularly if they suffer an injury to any starter. Beyond Pietrus, who averages 9.4 points and 3.3 rebounds in just under 25 minutes of action, it is hard to see where Orlando will look for a game changer if Lee is unavailable. For the Celtics, Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis are now full time starters and while Eddie House and Brian Scalabrine have offered key contributions in the last month, there is a lack of quality beyond them. Tony Allen and Miki Moore will only play minimal minutes and Stephon Marbury still scares just about any Celtics fan you care to ask. Both teams will expose their leading starters to sizable minutes in an attempt to beat each other and certainly the Cavalier starters should be the fresher group heading into the Conference Championships.

If the series were to come down to the bench mob, it is hard to look beyond the Cavaliers. They have more depth, experience, potential points and game changing personnel to call upon than either Orlando or Boston. The likes of Lebron, Mo Williams and Delonte West all look rested and should they need to play 40+ minutes during a series, should be able to do so at a high level; especially Lebron James. The same cannot be said of the starters of their potential opponents, principally a ragged Celtic Team.

4. Defence – Orlando, Boston and Cleveland had virtually identical Points Per Game stats for the season, but the Cavs limited their opponents to only 91.35 Points Per Game, two whole points less than their closest challengers, the Spurs and Celtics and almost three less than the Magic. Defensive intensity always picks up in the playoffs and to beat the Cavaliers, teams will have to frustrate Lebron and his co-stars in the manner that the Celtics managed to do at times in their Eastern Conference Semi-Final last season.

All three are premier Defensive teams that will limit the opportunities afforded their opponents but, as we have seen so far, the Cavaliers and Lebron in particular, are playing at a such a level that even to compete, the Magic and Celtics will have to up their game considerably. It all starts with guarding King James. For Orlando, Rafer Alston and Mickael Pietrus will be asked to step up his minutes to defend Lebron but the loss of Courtney Lee could hurt. Dwight Howard has had a fantastic year defending the basket and will need to limit Lebron in the lane and maybe have some highlight reel blocks to go along with it. The Celtics are without their own imposing big man (KG) and will rely on Paul Pierce to stop James. The Celtics also have quality defenders in Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo at Guard but there is little that either can do individually to defend the King, indeed for both teams, it will be key for the collective to get in Lebron’s face, pressure him, steal the ball when possible and make as few mistakes as possible. Maybe the best hope for both teams will be to play mistake-free offense to limit the Cavaliers fast-break opportunities and silent the Ohio crowd on their travels. The Three teams have only nine regular season losses to their name when they score 100+ points but Cleveland have the worst winning percentage of any when their opponents score 100+.

While Cleveland seemingly is still in the ascendancy (and we haven’t even mentioned the high-powered Anderson Varejao, Four-Time Defensive MVP Ben Wallace, Delonte West or Big Z, not to mention the fact that Lebron James just makes all the guys around him better), both the Celtics and Magic have found ways to stop the Cavs. The Magic may still be a year or two away from competing at the highest level and, in Dwight Howard, perhaps lack the leadership of Cleveland’s premier player. Playoff Series are so often won by the best player on the court and for all Howard’s ability and improved intensity, he trails Lebron at this point. The Celts are bounded by injury and fatigue but if Paul Pierce can slow James and still produce offensively (hard to imagine considering the inconsistency and languor he has shown in the playoffs; 3 points in game 2? three?) and play the kind of intelligent, controlled basketball they are capable of (and the key to this is Rajon Rondo, the developing soul of this team) then they have a chance at the upset.

5. Desire – When the Celtics won it all last year, none of the above were the overwhelming contributor to their success. They just wanted it more. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce were determined to grasp their opportunity to claim a ring and dragged their teammates to the promised land. The same passion and fervour, while most closely imitated in Massachusetts, resides in Ohio this year. Orlando can’t match it, the Celtics are playing like wounded champions and, should they face the Cavaliers, would certainly not roll over. But nobody can match the belief, the spirit and ultimately the desire of Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers this season.

If Lebron is to leave this team in 2010, he will do so as an MVP, as record holder of many a Cavalier record, as the NBA’s most marketable asset and, most importantly for him, a World Champion. Cavaliers to beat the Celtics in five games and win the NBA Championship in Six.