Tuesday, 12 May 2009

Something's Missing...

The NBA playoffs are in full swing, the current MLB season has been one of the most curious and engaging in recent history, the European Football season is heading to it’s climax and a myriad of other sporting events are in motion. Hell, i’ve even watched some hockey.

Despite the sporting cornucopia to choose from (and May is a good month for sport), I find myself yearning for some NFL action. With the 2009 Draft in the books and the majority of Major Free Agents having signed, the picture for the coming season is starting to become clear. A few trades, injuries, holdouts and a Brett Favre saga aside, it is possible to start predicting the future.

First things first: Fantasy. Which players are going to have us wildly cheering our hated rivals? Which players are likely to frustrate us to the point where we question whether we knew nearly as much about the game as we thought? And who, prey Fantasy Gods, will be the Ultimate Sleepers?

Here are the guys i flat out love this year:

Matt Forte – An obvious choice but you have to like the Cutler-Forte pairing. Forte had 1,715 total yards last season to go along with 12 TD’s and only one fumble as a rookie and with an extra years seasoning and, hopefully for him, less 8-man fronts as a result of a hopefully improved passing game (and i think Greg Olsen plays a big part in this and may well end the season as a No.1 fantasy Tight End) he should improve on these numbers. While the Bears do have Kevin Jones and the other Adrian Peterson, Forte is one of the few feature backs in the league and could finish with close to 2,000 all purpose yards with 12+ scores.

Pierre Thomas – New Orleans did not take a RB in the draft and seem content with a Thomas/Reggie Bush backfield. This is a pass first offense but with after averaging over 4.8 yards a carry last season, 12 TD’s and a trusted pair of hands to catch some Drew Brees passes, Thomas should see his touches and stats soar. Bush has been brittle and is not likely to be a major contributor in the running game (just 106 rushes last year at under 4 yards a carry) and Thomas should get all the goal-line carries. Thomas should have his first 1000 yard season with 10+ scores.

Derrick Ward – I wonder if this guy gets a $17million contract if he doesn’t torch the Panthers for 215 yards towards the end of the regular season? The Bucs had to like that performance against a very talented defence and if Ward can match the intensity and power he showed while spelling Brandon Jacobs last year then he can improve on his 1,025 yards he amassed last year. The Bucs will be a run-first team and Ward will be the centerpiece. Ward reminds me a little of a poor-man’s Michael Turner and with few miles on the clock, could have a breakout season like Turner did last year after previously serving as a backup. Expect 1,200+ yards and 8+ Touchdowns.

Knowshon Moreno – No way do the Broncos draft this guy so high with so many other pressing needs unless they figure him to be the focal point of the attack. Kyle Orton or Chris Simms, whoever wins that battle, is not throwing for 4,000 yards and while this team has some quality receivers and a host of other backs, Moreno can be expected to rush 250+ times and catch 40+ balls. Moreno should be a very solid No.3 back at the very least and is an early Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.

T.J Houshmandzadeh – The Hawks should be a much better team than the 4-12 injury riddled team with the anaemic offence we saw last year. Housh can be an effective receiver in the West Coast offense and as long as Matt Hasselbeck can stay healthy, then Seattle should have a high flying offense. Housh will also be helped by the fact that the Seahawks have a number of other dangerous targets that should alleviate the threat of heavy coverage including Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Tight End John Carlson. Houshmandzadeh could be in line for another 1000+ yard season with 8+ TD’s and should be a very steady no.2 fantasy Wide-out.

Steve Smith – Two Steve Smith’s in the league and they’re both WR’s? What are the odds….This Steve Smith, he of the Plex-less Giants, has been a third down receiver for the last couple of years but will have a heightened role this season as the Giants have released veteran Amani Toomer along with Vigilante Plaxico Burress. Smith has the hands and physicality to be a key End-zone target for this team and should lead the team in receptions and yards. I don’t believe that Eli Manning is likely to throw for more than 3,800 yards and 25 TD’s (not with all that wind in New York) as the Giants continue to be a run-first team but Smith should be the recipient of a lot of Manning’s throws. Domenik Hixon may well have more yards per catch this year and Hakeem Nicks should play some part in his rookie year but Smith should grab 70+ balls for 900+ yards and 7+ TD’s.

Rashard Mendenhall – Very much the forgotten man on the Champion Steeler’s Roster, Mendenhall had only 19 carries last year due to injury but will have a major role this season, both in the running an return games. He will get goal-line and short yardage carries (the Steelers released Gary Russell who filled that role last year) and might just end up being the starter by the end of the year ahead of Fast Willie Parker. Easy to forget that Mendenhall was the No.1 rated back on a lot of draft boards a couple of years ago. I think he reaches the end-zone 12+ times and approaches 1000 yards with added value as a returner.

Seems worth remembering at this stage that three of the top five scorers last year were QB’s (ESPN scoring). Also that Roy Williams is the No.1 receiver in Dallas and that makes either Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd or Miles Austin really valuable. Possibly.

And those that i hate:

Brian Westbrook – Sacrilege i know. Westbrook has been an elite fantasy performer for years and is a threat every time he touches the ball. Having said that, Philadelphia have bought in running backs the last two years (Lorenzo Booker and LeSean McCoy, both Westbrook clones) and Westbrook suffered a down-year statistically last term. He turns 30 in September (a death nail for many a back), will have less carries than before and was ineffective in the playoffs at the end of last year. He is still a savvy player and a good blocker which will keep him in on third down more often than not but I don’t see his likely draft position being rewarded.

Thomas Jones – ESPN’s scoring system had him as the no.4 back last year, equal with Matt Forte, but that should be disregarded when considering the 09-10 season. No 100-yard game in the last four outings, turns 31 in August, no more field stretching QB and the acquisition of Shonn Greene in the third round of the draft. Hate hate hate.

Randy Moss – Now i love Randy Moss. I really do. Always have. But he will fall away as a No.1 receiver this year. 69 receptions and 11 scores last year while handling balls from a backup who hadn’t started since….well, you know but I can see his production failing to match his draft position. Tom Brady is coming back from a serious knee injury, the likes of which we have seen many a Quarterback take almost two years to recover from, the loss of offensive guru Josh MacDaniels and the addition of the likes of Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis and Fred Taylor to take touches away from Moss. I actually hope im wrong here but it seemed to me that Moss started to slow last year and seemed slightly demotivated which does not bode well. Lance Moore could get more fantasy points this season than Moss. Wait, did i just type that?

Ronnie Brown – The addition of Pat White surely limits Brown’s potential in fantasyland this year. Miami will continue to purport the wildcat and use a combination of Brown and Ricky Williams in the run game. Brown only rushed for 100+ yards three times and had just one TD in his last eight games (including the playoffs). This could be a tough division to run in this year and Brown won’t be a consistent performer in the coming year.

Tarvaris Jackson – Because he just really isn’t very good.

Joseph Addai – Only had 180 touches last term and had only one 100+ yard game. Now the injury-prone back will be joined in the back field by another first round pick in Donald Brown and may struggle to return to the form of his rookie and sophomore campaigns.

Titans D/ST – Worth more points last year than Kevin Smith, Anquan Boldin and Ronnie Brown. They say defence wins championships and in fantasy, it can hold true also. The Titans D/ST was worth almost 100 more points than the Jags D/ST but this year will slip from their lofty position (I’ve seen them ranked as the leagues No.1 D/ST for the upcoming year) without the $100million Defensive Tackle that anchored them last year.

Early Sleepers:

Harry Douglas (Atlanta) – Maturing into a valuable target for Matty Ice.

Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) – A slot receiver with good hands. Nelson could be the recipient of a lot of balls in what was a pretty high-flying offense last year.

Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) – Last years Third Round pick could be a starter if Larry Johnson gets in trouble, gets traded or gets bored.

Dominic Rhodes (Buffalo) – Another guy who may benefit from the misfortune of others. Marshawn Lynch is already guarenteed to miss time and if Rhodes can beat out Fred Jackson then he could be a high scorer, particularly considering the field stretching receivers in Buffalo this year.

Johnny Lee Higgins (Oakland) – Higgins is a special teams maven who could see more reps at wide receiver this season. Only rookie Darrius Heyward-Bey and Javon Walker, both of whom have question marks surrounding them, sit above Higgins in the depth chart.

Trent Edwards (Buffalo) – Can he survive The Terrel Owens experience?

Brian Robiskie (Cleveland) – Has a chance to contribute straight away and, especially if big-armed Derek Anderson is under center, could get some big numbers.

That’s more than enough for today. Plenty of time to change my mind on just about all of these. Papelbon just closed out the Rays and the Celtics just levelled the series against the Magic. God bless Glen Davis.

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