NBA Finals time! But wasn't this advertised as Kobe v Lebron? The Black Mamba v The King? Last season's MVP v This season's MVP? I could go on, as has been the volume of coverage promoting the final that will never be.
Well, Lebron, the Cavs and just about everyone have come to grips with the fact that some team from Florida has crashed the party. And not in a 'if anyone asks why we're here we'll just say we thought this was our friends house' kind of way. They are here to stay, they are here to play and they could be about to rewrite this season's script once again.
But the Lakers are prohibitive favourites; 1/3 with most bookmakers, they were the best in the west and are returning finalists. What will the Magic have to do to overcome the mighty Lakers?
Plenty. They have to overcome a lack of experience, LA's home court advantage, history (the Magic have never won the NBA Championships, the Lakers have won 14) and the opinions of just about every non-Magic fan and analyst. Even Barrack Obama has picked the Lakers.
The series begins in Los Angeles on Thursday night and Orlando would go a long way to winning their first NBA Finals with a victory. Yes, it would rest away the home court advantage, yes it would silence the critics, yes it would set the tone and yes, their victories over the champion Celtics and the champion-elect Cavaliers both began with wins on the road in game 1. Ok, so every team wants to win the first game for many of the reasons above. But the Magic have to win it. Hall of Fame Lakers coach Phil Jackson is, and this is one of the most impressive, amazing, pseudo-unrealistic stats ever, 43-0 in series when his team wins the first game. He also has 9 NBA Championships as a coach and has a 205-90 record in the playoffs to back that stat up.
Whether they win tomorrow's game or not, a single trick will not result in the fairytale finish for the Magic. They will need something as super-natural as their name suggests - Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's 6'11, 270 pound black fella who would probably do more damage to Lois Lane than Clark Kent ever did. Dwight Howard is the NBA's version of Superman and will need to play like it if his team are to beat the Lakers. The good news for all Magic fans? The 23 year old former no. 1 pick is starting to look every bit the superstar that they, and the league, envisioned he would be; against Cleveland he averaged 25.8 points, 13 rebounds and 2.8 assists and had two of his best playoff performances - game 4 when he took over OT with 10 points in the 5 minute period and game 6 when he scored 40 points to add to 14 rebounds and 4 assists. In that series, Howard raised his FT% to .701 and punished the Cavaliers from the line while being ruthless around the basket.
Most of what Orlando do offensively centers around Howard; their pick and rolls, their 3-point kick outs and obviously their inside game rely on Dwight being a constant threat, being the kind of presence that scares an opponent to their size 15 boots. In last year's finals, Pau Gasol's play was called 'soft' by many. This year, a tougher looking Gasol and fellow big man Andrew Bynum will be asked to handle Howard and limit his impact. If he can win that match-up and do so comprehensively on both ends of the floor, then Orlando can do to the Lakers what they did to the Cavs.
The Cavaliers did pose the Magic a major problem. Unfortunately for them, in the most part it was just the one. Lebron James had one of the most memorable succession of performances in playoff history and almost single-handedly kept the Kobe v Lebron bandwaggon rolling (49 points in game 1, the last second 3 in game 2, 41 points in game 3, 44 points and two clutch free throws as time expired in game 4, 37-14-12 in one of the finest, controlled performances ever and his will only seemed broken finally in game 6 - he still had 25 points. Hell, he looked tired towards the end of game 1 and finally couldn't even muster the strength for a post-game handshake after their exit).
Unfortunately for Lebron, he had about as much help as Maradona in the 1986 World Cup, Roger Federer in the Davis Cup and House in...House.
However, the Lakers seem to have far more weapons and should force Orlando to work harder defensively as individuals and as a team. The key for the Magic, as well it may be for the Lakers, will be to keep their opponents out of the paint; they can't afford to have Howard pick up early fouls, they can't afford to let Kobe receive the ball near the basket and they can't afford to let Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom to post double-doubles and dominate upfront. If they do, they will be exposed. The matchups do not seem to favour the Magic but in Howard they have the Defensive MVP and can look to the aggression and physicality that Mickael Pietrus showed in shadowing Lebron as to how to defend Kobe.
While Gasol and Bryant will garner most of the attention both on and off the floor, the keys to the Lakers success may well be the pairing of Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom. Both had big moments against the Nuggets in the Conference Finals and both offer the versatility, speed, size and savvy to limit supreme scorers and matchup nightmares Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. On the other end of the court they shoot the long ball and force Orlando's playmakers to expend energy they would otherwise use while attacking.
Against the Cavs, Lewis shot .484 from three-point-land and Mickael Pietrus shot .472 - Those ridiculously high numbers actually don't even do justice to the regularity with which the Magic hit shots at key moments - Turkoglu's numbers were just average but between the three of them and the dangerous yet inconsistent Rafer Alston, Orlando pose the ultimate perimeter threat. For them to win this series, they will have to maintain that threat by sustain their quick ball movement and continuing their scary scoring streak.
Three key factors in the Magic's two regular season victories over the Lakers (106-103 and 109-103) were Dwight Howard's dominance - check, their outside shooting - check and Jameer Nelson - .....Nelson....Nelson....Bueller?
Nelson has been on the shelf since February 2nd with a torn labrum (shoulder) but has begun full training in recent days and many feel he could play in the Finals. The All-Star won't be returning to full-time service against Los Angeles but this is the guy that finished off the Lakers in both their games this year (52 points in the two games) and even limited minutes from him could be a catalyst for Orlando. How fit is he? More importantly, how long would it take him to return to form? The Finals is hardly the place for shooting practice and the Magic have got this far without him but the point guard was having a breakout year before injury and can at least provide some depth. If he gets on the court and shows what Orlando have been missing then all bets are off.
Nelson's influence off the bench is an unknown quantity going into Thursday night but the gentleman he will share the job of balancing Stan Van Gundy (one of my favourite pics http://www.nba.com/media/heat/hpg0506_051112_vangundy.jpg) with have already proven themselves in the post season. Pietrus, Courtney Lee and Marcin Gortat have all made important contributions and the Magic have not skipped a beat with them on the floor. Tony Battie will likely be handed a larger role in helping to counter the Lakers 'bigs' and J.J Reddick could yet get hot in the playoffs. Orlando's bench has powered them to these finals; they have more depth, more options and more quality than LA and the longer the series goes on, the greater prominence some of those role players will have.
So I've just spent the best part 5 hours documenting what the Magic will have to do to beat the Lakers. Ultimately, the tension, the glare and the intensity of the Finals will do as much to seperate these two teams as anything - will the main protagonists excel or hide? Will the replacements make themselves heroes? Throughout the post season, the unheralded gatecrashers from Florida have executed and captured the momentum when it came their way. If they continue in that manner, they can lift their first title.
Am i convinced? No. Lakers in six.
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