Tuesday, 26 May 2009

Sports Betting

The concept of gambling seems so much more acceptable if it is preceded by the term 'sports,' as if it were just a pleasant hobby. With that in mind, here are my picks for the next couple of days:

Cleveland to beat Orlando, 5/6

Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals is essentially a must-win for the Cavs. Basketball is a game of momentum and while this has resided in Florida so far this series, Cleveland can wrestle it back tonight with a victory. I think the Cavs improve their anaemic non-Lebron FG% and win this one.

188+ points between Orlando and Cleveland 5/6

Every game in this series so far has yielded at least 188 points so far.

Barcelona to beat Man Utd 17/10No team has ever retained the Champions League and there has to be some element of 'destiny' attached to their late, late winner at Stamford Bridge.

Ronaldo to score first but Barcelona to win 2-1 80/1

A bit of a shot in the dark but Ronaldo appears United's likeliest scorer and Barca are one of the few teams that wouldn't be phased by falling behind in a final like this. These are two very attacking teams and there should be goals.

Patrice Evra to receive the first yellow card 10/1, Carles Puyol to receive the first yellow card 11/1

Evra will be up against Messi and his magnetic touch. Puyol missed the second leg of the semi as a result of suspension and will likely be matched up against the irrepressible Ronaldo. A difficult task for both and either could be subject to a caution early.

Lazio to beat Juventus 7/1

The draw is at 3/1 and may be the better bet here but Lazio have won their last two games while Juve have just one in their last eight. Juventus' home record is fairly average and Lazio's away record pretty good, so with both teams having little to play for, Lazio could spring a surprise.

And a couple for the long term:

Wladimir Klitschko to beat David Haye 1/2

It's tempting to wager on Klitschko winning in Round 3 at 12/1 but Heavyweight fights often involve a 'feeling out' process early on. The size, reach and experience advantage all reside with Klitschko and Haye will be hard pressed to survive this fight for long. Could Haye win by KO (7/1)? Hard to imagine but realistically it seems like his best chance to win the fight.

The Twins to win the AL Central 4/1

This is a scrappy division and is essentially wide open. Minnesota's pitching has underperformed so far but in Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn have a solid rotation that should improve its numbers and in Joe Nathan, have arguably the best closer in the game. Offensively, they have been good with Joe Mauer playing out of his mind and the likes of Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer all contributing. Detroit lead the division and really any of the teams could make a run at the pennant but Minnesota may provide the best value. (possible side bet on the White Sox at 13/2)

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